Time Is on My Side?: The Impact of Timing and Dispute Type on Militarized Conflict Duration
  • Shawna K. Metzger
Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2017
author = {Shawna K. Metzger},
title = {Time is on my side? The impact of timing and dispute type on militarized conflict duration},
journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
volume = {34},
number = {3},
pages = {308-329},
year = {2017},
doi = {10.1177/0738894215593722},

URL = { 
eprint = { 
    abstract = { What influences the duration of interstate militarized conflicts? I argue that duration is affected by when the militarization occurs in the overarching dispute. Further, I suggest that the type of dispute being fought over has a conditioning effect. I hypothesize that later-occurring militarizations will last longer, but only in disputes over territorial issues. I test my argument on a sample of militarized conflicts over territorial, maritime, and river disputes, using a dynamic methodological technique to account for states’ strategic calculations. I find empirical support for my theoretical claims, contributing to our understanding of the interplay between interstate disputes and militarization. }
The Chicken or the Egg?: A Coevolutionary Approach to Disputed Issues and Militarized Conflict
  • Shawna K. Metzger
International Interactions, 2017
author = {Shawna K. Metzger},
title = {The Chicken or the Egg?: A Coevolutionary Approach to Disputed Issues and Militarized Conflict},
journal = {International Interactions},
volume = {43},
number = {5},
pages = {771-796},
year  = {2017},
publisher = {Routledge},
doi = {10.1080/03050629.2017.1237944},

URL = { 
eprint = { 
    abstract = {Is state behavior influenced by the context in which it occurs, or does context arise because of the way in which states behave? I investigate these questions in the context of international disputes over issues and states’ militarized behavior. The prevalent assumption in interstate conflict research is that disputed issues are exogenous to militarization patterns. I question the validity of this assumption, arguing there are reasons to suspect certain states self-select into disputes. I use a coevolution modeling strategy to allow the existence of disputes and states’ behavior to mutually affect one another. I find disputes are not exogenous to states’ militarized behavior. States that resort to militarized behavior are more likely to dispute an issue than peaceful states. I also find evidence of behavioral contagion among states engaged in disputes: Militarized behavior begets militarized behavior. }


A Guide for Designing a Quantitative Literacy or Reasoning Curriculum
  • Shawna K. Metzger
  • Philippe Raynal
Asian Journal of the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning, 2016
@article {MetzgerRaynal16,
author = {Metzger, Shawna K. and Raynal, Philippe},
title = {A Guide for Designing a Quantitative Literacy or Reasoning Curriculum},
journal = {Asian Journal of the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning},
volume = {6},
number = {1},
url = {http://www.ajsotl.edu.sg/article/a-guide-for-designing-a-quantitative-literacy-or-reasoning-curriculum/},
pages = {77--98},
year = {2016},
Conflict Dynamics
  • Benjamin T. Jones
  • Shawna K. Metzger
Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance, 2016
	title = {Conflict {Dynamics}},
	isbn = {978-3-319-31816-5},
	url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_2548-1},
	booktitle = {Global {Encyclopedia} of {Public} {Administration}, {Public} {Policy}, and {Governance}},
	publisher = {Springer},
	author = {Jones, Benjamin T. and Metzger, Shawna K.},
	editor = {Farazmand, Ali},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1--8},
Surviving Phases: Introducing Multistate Survival Models
  • Shawna K. Metzger
  • Benjamin T. Jones
Political Analysis, 2016
	title = {Surviving {Phases}: {Introducing} {Multistate} {Survival} {Models}},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	shorttitle = {Surviving {Phases}},
	url = {http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/24/4/457},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpw025},
	abstract = {Many political processes consist of a series of theoretically meaningful transitions across discrete phases that occur through time. Yet political scientists are often theoretically interested in studying not just individual transitions between phases, but also the duration that subjects spend within phases, as well as the effect of covariates on subjects’ trajectories through the process’s multiple phases. We introduce the multistate survival model to political scientists, which is capable of modeling precisely this type of situation. The model is appealing because of its ability to accommodate multiple forms of causal complexity that unfold over time. In particular, we highlight three attractive features of multistate models: transition-specific baseline hazards, transition-specific covariate effects, and the ability to estimate transition probabilities. We provide two applications to illustrate these features.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2016-10-20},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Metzger, Shawna K. and Jones, Benjamin T.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {457--477},


Screening out Risk: IGOs, Member State Selection, and Interstate Conflict
  • Daniela Donno
  • Shawna K. Metzger
  • Bruce Russett
International Studies Quarterly, 2015
@article {ISQU:ISQU12177,
author = {Donno, Daniela and Metzger, Shawna K. and Russett, Bruce},
title = {Screening Out Risk: IGOs, Member State Selection, and Interstate Conflict, 1951–2000},
journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
volume = {59},
number = {2},
issn = {1468-2478},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12177},
doi = {10.1111/isqu.12177},
pages = {251--263},
year = {2015},