Conflict Dynamics

“Time Is on My Side?: The Impact of Timing and Dispute Type on Militarized Conflict Duration,” 2017, Conflict Management and Peace Science {paper abstract}

The main way in which I have conceptualized “context” to date is found in my dissertation, which I am in the process of converting into a book manuscript. In the project, I treat the issue being disputed by states as context. How does an international dispute, such as a disagreement over territory, evolve? The puzzle motivating the project originated from recent news articles on the behavior of disputants in the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea. When making decisions, do state decision makers have an eye on the future as they perform cost-benefit analyses, or are they “blinded” by history? To date, scholars have conceptualized conflict dynamics in one of two ways, but often focus on one of these explanations at the expense of the other. I claim that different disputes exhibit different types of dynamics. To the best of my knowledge, this claim has not been explicitly made before.

I argue that the importance of the issue being fought over will influence which dynamic will be present. Highly salient issues, I claim, are most likely to be affected by history because they create decision-making environments conducive to subjective interpretations. I employ a set of methodological techniques to determine which conception of conflict dynamics is more helpful, and when. First, I explore possible selection effects by analyzing which disputed issues experience militarization and which remain entirely peaceful. I do this using a split population setup on a sample of territorial, maritime, and river issues. Second, I utilize a simultaneous equation setup that can accommodate both types of dynamic in a unified framework. In general, I find evidence supportive of my argument, providing important insights into how we should think about militarized conflict, both interstate and intrastate. The Conflict Management and Peace Science article features the argument and results associated with the simultaneous equation setup.