Different Words, Same Song: Advice for Substantively Interpreting Duration Models

Duration models’ use in political science continues to grow, more than a decade after Box-Steffensmeier and Jones (2004). However, several common misconceptions about the models still persist. To improve scholars’ use and interpretation of duration models, we point out that duration models are a type of regression model, and therefore follow the same rules as other, more commonly used regression models. We offer four guiding maxims to this end. We survey the various duration model interpretation strategies and group them into four categories, which is an important organizational exercise that does not appear elsewhere. We then discuss these strategies’ strengths and weaknesses, noting that all are correct from a technical perspective, but some strategies make more sense than others for non-technical reasons, which ultimately informs best practices.