Time Is on My Side?: The Impact of Timing and Dispute Type on Militarized Conflict Duration

  • Shawna K. Metzger
Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2017

What influences the duration of interstate militarized conflicts? I argue that duration is affected by when the militarization occurs in the overarching dispute. Further, I suggest that the type of dispute being fought over has a conditioning effect. I hypothesize that later-occurring militarizations will last longer, but only in disputes over territorial issues. I test my argument on a sample of militarized conflicts over territorial, maritime, and river disputes, using a dynamic methodological technique to account for states’ strategic calculations. I find empirical support for my theoretical claims, contributing to our understanding of the interplay between interstate disputes and militarization.




@article{doi:10.1177/0738894215593722,
author = {Shawna K. Metzger},
title = {Time is on my side? The impact of timing and dispute type on militarized conflict duration},
journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
volume = {34},
number = {3},
pages = {308-329},
year = {2017},
doi = {10.1177/0738894215593722},

URL = { 
        http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894215593722
    
},
eprint = { 
        http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894215593722
    
}
,
    abstract = { What influences the duration of interstate militarized conflicts? I argue that duration is affected by when the militarization occurs in the overarching dispute. Further, I suggest that the type of dispute being fought over has a conditioning effect. I hypothesize that later-occurring militarizations will last longer, but only in disputes over territorial issues. I test my argument on a sample of militarized conflicts over territorial, maritime, and river disputes, using a dynamic methodological technique to account for states’ strategic calculations. I find empirical support for my theoretical claims, contributing to our understanding of the interplay between interstate disputes and militarization. }
}